Trump’s Biggest Test Yet: Can MAGA Diplomacy Survive Netanyahu’s Iran Gambit?

Israel’s surprise strike on Iran isn’t just military—it’s a political ambush aimed at derailing Trump’s MAGA diplomacy. As Tehran reels and Gulf allies scramble, Trump faces a brutal choice: rein in Netanyahu or risk a regional inferno. This is more than escalation—it’s a crossroads. The Middle East teeters, and Trump’s legacy may hinge on whether he leads with deals or gets dragged into another endless war.

In the early morning hours of June 13, Israel launched an audacious, high-intensity assault on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure—Operation Rising Lion. It wasn't just a strike on nuclear sites; it is the beginning of a potentially long degradation strategy slowly boiling the frog. Similar to Israel’s bold move to degrade Hezbollah once deterrence had collapsed last year, Israel is targeting Iran’s senior IRGC leadership and directly challenging the strategic status quo of the region. But this was not merely a military move—it was a calculated political strike, one aimed just as much at Tehran as it was at Washington.

At its core, this Israeli action is a neo-conservative ambush on the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) vision that has steadily gained traction within the Trump administration in recent weeks. As neo-cons are purged and MAGA loyalists consolidate power, Trump has empowered envoys like Witkoff to pursue a diplomacy-first, deal-oriented approach to Iran. Quiet backchannels brokered through Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia were laying the foundation for a post-sanction, interconnected Middle East. Netanyahu, fearing irrelevance as the chief architect of US- Middle East strategy, struck hard to shift the narrative. Netanyahu had to fear the window of opportunity to strike Iran was closing.

Trump now finds himself boxed in. Netanyahu’s strike forces his hand—pulling him deeper into a regional quagmire his administration had tried to disengage from. Publicly, Trump cannot afford to admit that Israel’s unilateral move undermines months of careful diplomacy. Privately, he must now recalibrate.

Yet Trump, ever the naïve tactician, may see opportunity in crisis. He will likely use the humiliation of the Iranian regime as a blunt instrument to extract unprecedented concessions—total surrender of uranium enrichment, permanent oversight of nuclear sites, and removal of the sunset clauses that haunted the original JCPOA. This would be the biggest test yet of Trump’s fabled “Art of the Deal.”

But there’s a catch. Iran is reeling, and the strikes have delivered a psychological shock of historic proportions. The regime sees the attack not only as a violation of sovereignty, but as a bid to induce systemic collapse. Israel’s threat of prolonged degradation strikes at a moment when Iran is already buckling under macroeconomic pressures and domestic unrest. From Tehran’s perspective, this is existential. And when everything is existential, everything is on the table—ballistic missiles, drones, regional surrogates, cyberwarfare, and possibly even an accelerated nuclear track – much depending on how badly Israel is able to damage Iran’s nuclear program.

Trump’s challenge now is profound. If he wants to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, he must maintain Iran’s dignity—a nearly impossible task after such a public humiliation. Trust in the United States is all but evaporated. For Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, who had painstakingly built the groundwork for regional dialogue, rebuilding that trust may prove insurmountable.

To regain credibility, Trump would need to do what no American president has done before: show he can rein in Israel. That means putting real leverage on the table—suspending arms transfers, halting intelligence support, even freezing financial aid. Anything short of that, and Iran will simply not believe that Washington can deliver on any deal.

Trump’s Gulf allies may yet prove his best chance. Unlike Israel, which wants the U.S. to lead from the front, the Gulf prefers a model where Washington leads from behind—facilitating rather than dictating. If mobilized effectively, the Gulf could become a force multiplier for MAGA diplomacy, offering Iran the off-ramp it desperately needs. But the clock is ticking. Every hour that passes without a diplomatic overture brings the region closer to an uncontrollable spiral.

That said, Iran has now good options either. Its slow and low-flying drones are an easy target for Israel. Only ballistic missiles in large numbers will seriously pose a threat to Israel. Hezbollah will only reluctantly be mobilized to become a pawn in the Islamic Republic’s survival. Syrian militias are all but out of the game. It leaves only Iraqi militias and the Houthis who can inflict pain on Israel and the US – but pain that Israel has learned to sustain. For Iran a face-saving retaliatory strike on Israel with some structural damage accompanied by a deal with the US to manage its nuclear program, might just be best the Islamic Republic can achieve right now.

This is not just another episode in the Middle East’s endless cycle of escalation. This is a turning point—possibly the last chance to prevent Iran from choosing the path of total escalation or irreversible nuclearization. And for Donald Trump, it may be the defining foreign policy test of his presidency. Is he the America First President he claims to be, or will he succumb to neo-conservative pressures in the Middle East like presidents before him?