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Gulf states are caught in middle of the US-Israel war on Iran. There is a way out
From Abu Dhabi to Riyadh, regional states must take steps to shape their own destinies, rather than being pawns in the Israeli-US agenda On Saturday morning, the departure board at Dubai’s main airport began to stack up with delays. Over the water, pale arcs rose, flared and vanished - interceptors, officials later said - leaving chalk traces in a sky turning white. Similar scenes occurred in Abu Dhabi, Doha, Manama and Kuwait City. Then, in the afternoon, both the Dubai air
Andreas Krieg
Mar 35 min read


The Gulf’s Harder Balance: Iran’s Strategic Paralysis vs Israel’s Impulse
This is a moment in which the Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since the 7th of October and an Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests.
Andreas Krieg
Feb 115 min read


Analysis: Why a ‘quick and clean’ US attack on Iran won’t be easy
Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control. [published on Al Jazeera originally ] Illiberal systems often look most permanent just before they change. But moments of upheaval can also produce a different illusion: That the system is one dramatic external blow away from collapse. With Iran convulsed by unprecedented protests against the country’s leadership, it is tempting
Andreas Krieg
Jan 164 min read


The Limits of Israel’s Degradation Strategy Against Iran’s Network State
Iran as a network-state will survive degradation from Israel
Andreas Krieg
Jul 5, 20256 min read


"TACO" Trump and War in Iran - Between Madman Theory and Madness
As Trump enters a volatile phase of his second-term foreign policy, his erratic leadership style casts doubt on his ability to manage potential war in the Middle East. What resembles madman theory is, in reality, impulsive chaos lacking discipline or control.
Andreas Krieg
Jun 20, 20255 min read


Why Israel’s targeting of Iran’s nuclear sites could backfire
Israel has achieved stunning tactical successes against the Islamic Republic in the past few days but risks strategic overreach – and...
Andreas Krieg
Jun 16, 20254 min read


Trump’s Biggest Test Yet: Can MAGA Diplomacy Survive Netanyahu’s Iran Gambit?
Israel’s surprise strike on Iran isn’t just military—it’s a political ambush aimed at derailing Trump’s MAGA diplomacy
Andreas Krieg
Jun 13, 20254 min read


Network model shows resilience as Iran-Israel clash expands
Israel is playing chess against Iran playing a 3D network game
Andreas Krieg
Jul 16, 20245 min read


US needs to credibly link energy with geo-politics in Gulf
Washington must not cater blindly to the argument of authoritarian stability – this narrative is already sold much more convincingly by...
Andreas Krieg
Jul 12, 20224 min read


The limits of the UAE’s neo-mercantilism
Since August, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been on a comprehensive regional tour that has involved Abu Dhabi reconciling with...
Andreas Krieg
Dec 17, 20215 min read