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Can Trump’s America Drive Europe and the Gulf Together?

As American power becomes more erratic and extortionate, Europe and the Gulf could help each other building strategic autonomy When empires decline, they rarely do so gracefully. They become fiercer. They try, with increasing desperation, to defend their pole position through ever riskier military adventures and ever harsher forms of economic coercion. Their rulers appear more erratic. They overestimate their own judgement, their country’s strength and the resilience of the i

Andreas Krieg

Mar 255 min read

America is Bogged Down Against a Militia With a State

[ originally published on DAWN ] Every war the West has fought in the post-9/11 "War on Terror" era has ended in some form of stalemate or outright defeat. Tactical battlefield successes never consolidated into sustainable strategic outcomes of security and stability — neither for America nor the region. While the U.S.-led coalition toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003 quickly, it lost the war in the subsequent quagmire, fighting violent non-state actors across a spe

Andreas Krieg

Mar 195 min read

Gulf states are caught in middle of the US-Israel war on Iran. There is a way out

From Abu Dhabi to Riyadh, regional states must take steps to shape their own destinies, rather than being pawns in the Israeli-US agenda On Saturday morning, the departure board at Dubai’s main airport began to stack up with delays. Over the water, pale arcs rose, flared and vanished - interceptors, officials later said - leaving chalk traces in a sky turning white. Similar scenes occurred in Abu Dhabi, Doha, Manama and Kuwait City. Then, in the afternoon, both the Dubai air

Andreas Krieg

Mar 35 min read

The Gulf’s Harder Balance: Iran’s Strategic Paralysis vs Israel’s Impulse

This is a moment in which the Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since the 7th of October and an Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests.

Andreas Krieg

Feb 115 min read

Analysis: Why a ‘quick and clean’ US attack on Iran won’t be easy

Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control. [published on Al Jazeera originally ] Illiberal systems often look most permanent just before they change. But moments of upheaval can also produce a different illusion: That the system is one dramatic external blow away from collapse. With Iran convulsed by unprecedented protests against the country’s leadership, it is tempting

Andreas Krieg

Jan 164 min read

The Return of the Arab–Israeli Conflict

The fallout from Israel’s strike on Qatar drags the region back into the dangerous early stages of the Arab–Israeli conflict.

Andreas Krieg

Sep 17, 20255 min read

How Israeli strikes are compelling shift in Gulf security thinking

The Iranian and Israeli attacks on Qatar in June and September this year, respectively, signify a profound shift in the Gulf's security...

Andreas Krieg

Sep 11, 20255 min read

The Limits of Israel’s Degradation Strategy Against Iran’s Network State

Iran as a network-state will survive degradation from Israel

Andreas Krieg

Jul 5, 20256 min read

"TACO" Trump and War in Iran - Between Madman Theory and Madness

As Trump enters a volatile phase of his second-term foreign policy, his erratic leadership style casts doubt on his ability to manage potential war in the Middle East. What resembles madman theory is, in reality, impulsive chaos lacking discipline or control.

Andreas Krieg

Jun 20, 20255 min read